Story by Karin Jegalian

The earth's climate is changing, and humans are behind it. So what are we doing about it?

Diorama and illustrations by Mira Azarm

After years of extreme weather headlines and alarming scientific findings, climate change is the talk of the developed world, even in the petroleum-hungry United States, where about five percent of the world's population produces about a quarter of the planet's greenhouse gas emissions.

Collaborative Research Is Key

The chair of the National Academies of Science panel on climate change is Antonio Busalacchi, professor and director of the university's Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, or ESSIC. "My role and responsibility is to provide objective information on the science," he says. ESSIC was created to foster collaboration among earth scientists. The center spans three departments from two colleges and includes faculty with joint appointments in NASA-Goddard and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, both of which have facilities close to the university.

The goal of ESSIC researchers is to understand how the physical systems of the Earth—involving the land, water and atmosphere—interact and how these systems in turn interact with living things. Busalacchi spent 18 years as a researcher in NASA before joining ESSIC, and one of his goals has been to create stronger partnerships between the university and federal agencies. "The university can draw on NASA and NOAA's strengths … and can complement the strengths of the government," he says.

Another collaborator in environmental research is the Joint Global Change Research Institute, or JGCRI, which was established in 2001 as a joint venture between the university and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. "The core work here is integrated assessment," says James Dooley, a senior staff scientist at JGCRI. "We take what I would call an almost omnidisciplinary—more than multidisciplinary—approach to looking at climate change."

By integrating analysis of demographics, economics, technological developments and policy as well as the physical sciences, the researchers at JGCRI model how the global energy system and society might respond or adapt under a wide range of possible scenarios. The overriding goal of the work at JGCRI is to help find practical and cost-effective solutions for addressing climate change.

Busalacchi is eager to bring nearby climate researchers closer together because much of the research is complementary. Soon, NOAA will move onto university property in M Square, the research park near the College Park Metro station, and ESSIC and JGCRI plan to share a new building in M Square as well.

Earth, Sea and Society

In ESSIC, researchers use observations gathered by satellites and on the ground to create models that project how greenhouse gas levels and temperatures will change. Predictions about physical factors like temperature, precipitation and ocean circulation can lead to forecasts about agricultural productivity, the possibility of harmful algal blooms and the spread of mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever. "We are doing research to see what can be predicted on the scale of months, years and decades," says Busalacchi.

Among other questions, researchers in ESSIC are studying how deforestation affects the global carbon cycle, how increasing levels of aerosols in the atmosphere affect climate, how inland waterways respond to climate change, and what the atmosphere on Earth billions of years ago can tell us about what may happen in the future.

A number of researchers at the university study the effects of warming oceans. "Ocean circulation may be slowed down worldwide," says Wendy Wang, an assistant research scientist in ESSIC. When less nutrient-rich water wells up from the ocean's depths, populations of phytoplankton, which form the base of the ocean food chain, decrease. This ultimately affects fish and sea bird populations. Also, because phytoplankton are tiny plants, collectively responsible for absorbing large amounts of the planet's carbon dioxide, lower phytoplankton populations exacerbate the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

The responsibility for earth scientists, as Busalacchi sees it, is to provide an ever better understanding of the planet as a dynamic entity and, thereby, ever more reliable predictions. Whereas researchers in earth science study why and how climate is changing, those in JGCRI focus on what the effects might be on society and how new processes and technologies could lessen greenhouse gas emissions while still allowing for rising standards of living. Dooley, for example, does research on technology that could capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and inject it deep inside the ground. Others at JGCRI study how changes in agricultural practice, like tilling less deeply into soil, could help release less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

"More efficient light bulbs and automobiles are necessary but not enough," says Dooley. "There is no silver bullet. It's inconceivable that just one technology is the solution."

Part of the issue is that there is no shortage of fossil fuels in the ground. Reduced carbon dioxide emissions "won't happen automatically," says Fetter. "We'll need policies." Instituting a tax based on the carbon content of fuel or developing a cap-and-trade system in which people and institutions can buy and sell carbon permits are the most frequently discussed policy initiatives.

While there may be costs in limiting carbon dioxide emission, there are also clear costs to not doing enough—whether in damage from storms, increasing rates of infectious diseases, disruptions to food production or the loss of species. "We could start with a modest tax," says Fetter. "This would send a signal to industry and investors that we're committed to reducing carbon emissions."

At this point, the energy industry puts less than 1 percent of its proceeds into research and development, in contrast to, say, the pharmaceutical and software industries, where investment is closer to 10-12 percent. Creating new incentives would encourage research into more efficient fuel use and the development of alternative forms of energy, such as biofuels, solar and wind.

"There's no consensus yet on what to do," says Fetter. "There's a temptation to say let's wait until we know all the details, but we can't afford to do that." The planet is already committed to a significant amount of warming. The question is how high temperatures will go and when and how societies will respond. Busalacchi says he's optimistic about the future. "The ultimate fix will result from advanced technologies," he says. "When industry realizes it's in their economic interest, we will see those changes." TERP

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